目的 采用指数平滑法预测艾滋病新报告病例的趋势,为泸州市制定预防和控制艾滋病策略提供依据。方法 根据2018—2019年泸州市每月艾滋病新报告病例资料,使用指数平滑法构建预测模型,预测2020年上半年每月新报告病例,并对预测结果进行评价。结果 综合比较指数平滑法四种模型的判断指标,确定Holt线性趋势模型为最优预测模型,模型的拟合度较高,实际值均在预测值的95%置信区间内。2020年1~6月艾滋病新报告病例数和模型预测值的平均相对误差33.19%。结论 Holt线性趋势模型可较好地拟合泸州市艾滋病新报告病例情况。

Objective The exponential smoothing method was used to predict the trend of newly reported AIDS cases,and to provide the basis for the formulation of AIDS prevention and control strategies in Luzhou City. Methods According to the monthly new reported cases of AIDS in Luzhou City from 2018 to 2019,the exponential smoothing method was used to build a prediction model to predict the monthly new reported cases in the first half of 2020,and the prediction results were evaluated. Results By comprehensively comparing the judgment indicators of the four models of exponential smoothing,the Holt linear trend model was determined to be the optimal prediction model for this study.The model had a high degree of fit,and the actual value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value.The average relative error between the number of newly reported cases of AIDS from January to June 2020 and the predicted value of the model was 33.19%. Conclusion The Holt linear trend model can well fit the situation of newly reported AIDS cases in Luzhou City.