目的 了解马鞍山市PM2.5浓度对居民循环系统疾病死亡风险的影响。方法 收集马鞍山市2018—2020年大气污染物、气象和居民死因监测资料,用广义相加回归模型分析马鞍山市PM2.5浓度对居民循环系统疾病死亡风险及滞后效应。结果 2018—2020年马鞍山市居民因循环系统疾病死亡6 334人,日均死亡(5.78±2.71)人;2018—2020年大气PM2.5日均浓度中位数为34.00(23.00,44.00)μg/m3,日均温度中位数为17.95(8.70,24.60)℃,相对湿度中位数为75.00(64.00,87.00)%。单污染物模型中,PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病死亡数的关联在lag1和lag05时最高,ER分别为1.21%(95%CI:0.21%~2.22%)和2.03％(95％CI:0.50％~3.59％)。双污染物模型中,纳入CO和O3-8h后,PM2.5浓度升高对马鞍山市居民循环系统死亡风险的效应值升高,纳入PM10、SO2、NO2时降低。多污染物模型中,当同时将 PM10、SO2、NO2、CO、O3-8h引入模型后,马鞍山市居民循环系统疾病死亡风险效应值下降但无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 马鞍山市大气 PM2.5浓度升高对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响存在时间滞后性,可能导致居民循环系统疾病死亡风险增加。
Abstract
Objective To investigate the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration on the risk of death from circulatory system diseases among residents in Ma'anshan City. Methods Data of air pollutants,meteorological and residential cause of death of Ma'anshan residents from 2018 to 2020 were collected.The generalized additive regression model was employed to evaluate the risk and lagged effects of PM2.5 concentration on mortality risk of circulatory system diseases among residents in Ma'anshan City. Results From 2018 to 2020,there were 6 334 people died of circulatory system diseases with an average of (5.78±2.71) deaths every day in Ma'anshan City.From 2018 to 2020,the median daily average concentration of atmospheric PM2.5 was 34.00 (23.00,44.00)μg/m3,the median daily average temperature was 17.95 (8.70,24.60)℃,and the median relative humidity was 75.00 (64.00,87.00)%.In the single-pollutant model,the strongest correlation between PM2.5 concentration and circulatory system disease mortality was lag1 and lag05,respectively.The excess risk (ER) was 1.21% (95%CI:0.21%~2.22%) and 2.03％ (95％CI:0.50％~3.59％),respectively.In the double-pollutant model,when CO and O3-8h were included separately,the risk of circulatory system disease deaths caused by increased PM2.5 concentration was increased,and it was decreased when PM10,SO2,NO2 were included separately.While taking PM10,SO2,NO2,CO and O3-8h in the multi pollution model at the same time,the effect value of the risk of circulatory system disease deaths decreased but was not statistically significant in Ma'anshan City (P>0.05). Conclusion The impact of PM2.5 concentration in the atmosphere of Ma'anshan City on the death of circulatory system diseases has a time lag,which may lead to an increased risk of death from circulatory system diseases.
关键词
大气污染 /
PM2.5 /
循环系统疾病 /
死亡风险
Key words
Air pollution /
PM2.5 /
Circulatory system diseases /
Death risk
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