目的 分析蚌埠市2012—2021年丙型肝炎流行特征并对未来发病趋势进行预测。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统丙肝监测模块获取2012—2021年报告的现住址为蚌埠市的丙肝病例数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析蚌埠市2012—2021年丙肝流行病学特征,同时运用指数平滑法依据均方根误差最小原则确立最优预测模型,预测蚌埠市2022—2023年丙肝发病趋势。结果 2012—2021年蚌埠市共报告丙肝病例3 638例,男性1 908例,女性1 730例,男女比为1.10∶1,年报告发病率平均增长速度为8.76%,呈波动上升趋势(χ²_趋势=62.530,P＜0.001);40～49岁年龄组报告发病人数最多,占23.17％(843/3 638);农民群体报告病例数最多,占50.38％(1 833/3 638);不同月份报告丙肝病例构成比差异有统计学意义(χ²=28.700,P=0.003),其中4月报告病例数最多,共计342例;报告病例数居前3的县(区)分别是五河县(1 050例,占28.86%)、禹会区(643例,占17.67%)、蚌山区(600例,占16.49%)。应用Winter相加模型对2022—2023年蚌埠市丙肝报告发病率进行预测,预测年报告发病率为14.30/10万与16.44/10万。结论 蚌埠市2012—2021年丙肝发病率呈上升趋势,Winter相加模型能较好预测蚌埠市丙肝发病趋势,应结合预测模型结果,加强丙肝监测检测和规范治疗。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2012 to 2021 and predict the future incidence trends. Methods Descriptive epidemiology method was applied to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2012 to 2021,which obtained through the hepatitis C surveillance module of Information System for Disease Control and Prevention sponsored by China Center for Disease Control and Prevention,the exponential smoothing method was employed to establish optimal prediction model.Minimum root mean square error was applied to predict the trend of hepatitis C in Bengbu from 2022 to 2023. Results From 2012 to 2021,a total of 3 638 hepatitis C cases were reported in Bengbu City,1 908 cases in males and 1 730 cases in females,with a sex ratio of 1.10∶1.The average annual incidence growth rate was 8.76%,showed a fluctuating upward trend(χ²_trend=62.530,P＜0.001);most cases were reported from 40 to 49 years age group,accounting for 23.17% of the total number (843/3 638);cases were reported at all occupations,farmers' accounting for 50.38% of the total cases (1 833/3 638) with the most occupation reported;the difference in the proportion of reported hepatitis C cases by month was statistically significant (χ²=28.700,P=0.003),April had the highest number of cases reported,with 342 cases in total;the top three districts (counties) in terms of reported cases were Wuhe County (1 050 cases,28.86%),Yuhui District (643,17.67%) and Bengshan District (600,16.49%).The Winter summation model was followed to predict the reported incidence of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2022 to 2023,the predicted annual incidence was 14.30/100 000 and 16.44/100 000, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Bengbu City was rising from 2012 to 2021,and the winter summation model was promising in predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Bengbu City.According to the results of the prediction model,surveillance,detection and standardized treatment of hepatitis C should be strengthened.