目的 科学评估安徽省各类突发公共卫生事件在2025年不同月份的发生风险,明确重点关注地区和场所,提出风险管理建议,为各地做好卫生应急准备工作提供科学依据。方法 制作专家咨询表,使用德尔菲法筛选风险评估议题。应用专家会商法,邀请不同领域专家在风险识别的基础上进行风险分析、风险评价,对各评估议题在不同月份的关注级别进行判定,明确重点关注地区和重点关注场所,提出风险管理建议。结果 共筛选出20个风险评估议题,其中1月需重点关注流行性感冒、水痘、非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件;2月需重点关注新型冠状病毒感染、流行性感冒;3月需重点关注新型冠状病毒感染、结核病;4月需重点关注结核病、发热伴血小板减少综合征;5月需重点关注百日咳、手足口病、发热伴血小板减少综合征、血吸虫病;6月需重点关注百日咳、霍乱、手足口病、发热伴血小板减少综合征、血吸虫病、食源性疾病暴发事件;7月需重点关注新型冠状病毒感染、霍乱、发热伴血小板减少综合征、登革热、血吸虫病、食源性疾病暴发事件;8月需重点关注新型冠状病毒感染、霍乱、登革热、血吸虫病、食源性疾病暴发事件;9月需重点关注霍乱、登革热、血吸虫病;10月需重点关注百日咳、血吸虫病;11月需重点关注水痘、诺如病毒感染;12月需重点关注流行性感冒、水痘、诺如病毒感染。皖中地区,山地和丘陵地区需关注发热伴血小板减少综合征,皖北农村地区需重点关注布鲁氏菌病。流行性感冒、水痘、手足口病等重点关注场所为托幼机构、学校,中毒类事件重点关注场所为家庭、餐馆和饭店。结论 各议题在不同月份具有不同的关注等级、重点关注地区和重点关注场所。

Objective To assess the risk of various public health emergencies in Anhui Province in different months of 2025,thus to identify areas and places of priority concern,and put forward risk management suggestions to provide scientific basis for local health emergency preparedness. Methods An expert consultation form was designed,and the Delphi method was used to screen risk assessment topics.Experts from different fields were invited,and the expert consultation method was used to conduct risk analysis and risk evaluation based on risk identification.The attention levels of each assessment topic in different months were determined,and the key areas and locations were identified.The risk management recommendations were made. Results A total of 20 risk assessment topics were identified.In January,influenza,chickenpox and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning required close attention.In February,the focus should be on COVID-19 and influenza.In March,the key concerns were COVID-19 and tuberculosis.In April,tuberculosis and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) were the main focuses.In May,pertussis,hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD),SFTS and schistosomiasis needed to be closely monitored.In June,the key concerns were pertussis,cholera,HFMD,SFTS,schistosomiasis and foodborne disease outbreaks.In July,the focus should be on COVID-19,cholera,SFTS,dengue fever,schistosomiasis and foodborne disease outbreaks.In August,COVID-19,cholera,dengue fever,schistosomiasis and foodborne disease outbreaks were the main concerns.In September,the key focuses were cholera,dengue fever and schistosomiasis.In October,pertussis and schistosomiasis required close attention.In November,the focus should be on chickenpox and norovirus infection.In December,influenza,chickenpox and norovirus infection were the main concerns.In the central region of Anhui,mountainous and hilly areas,SFTS needed to be focused,while rural areas in northern Anhui needed to focus on brucellosis.For influenza,chickenpox and HFMD,the key attention venues were kindergartens and schools.For poisoning-related events,the key attention venues were households,restaurants and hotels. Conclusion Each topic has different levels of concern,key regions,and key venues in different months.