目的 分析2014—2023年焦作市流行性腮腺炎流行特征并进行趋势预测。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2014—2023年焦作市流行性腮腺炎发病资料,采用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析,建立ARIMA模型,预测2024年焦作市流行性腮腺炎发病趋势。结果 2014—2023年焦作市累计报告流行性腮腺炎3 401例,年均报告发病率为9.59/10万,2014—2019年报告发病率呈上升趋势(χ${ }_{趋势}^{2}$=480.713,P<0.001),2019—2022年呈下降趋势(χ${ }_{趋势}^{2}$=428.513,P<0.001);各地年均报告发病率范围为2.99/10万~19.17/10万;流行性腮腺炎发病呈明显季节性,春末夏初及秋冬为流行高峰期;男性年均报告发病率(11.57/10万)高于女性(7.7/10万) (χ²=134.92,P<0.001);发病年龄主要为15岁以下人群,共报告3 038例(89.33%);发病居前3位的人群是学生、幼托儿童、散居儿童,占全部病例的92.39%。ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,0,0)₁₂模型预测2024年7—12月的报告发病数为172例,较2023年同期(145例)升高18.62%。结论 学生和幼托儿童是流行性腮腺炎防控的关键人群,应持续加强学校和幼托机构的流行性腮腺炎防控工作。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiaozuo City from 2014 to 2023,and predict the disease trend. Methods The data on incidence of mumps from 2014 to 2023 in Jiaozuo City were collected through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used for statistical analysis,and the auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models were established to predict the incidence trend of mumps in Jiaozuo City in 2024. Results A total of 3 401 cases of mumps were reported in Jiaozuo City from 2014 to 2023,with an average annual incidence rate of 9.59 per 100 000.The incidence rate showed an overall upward trend from 2014 to 2019 (χ ${ }_{trend}^{2}$=480.713,P<0.001) and a downward trend from 2019 to 2022 (χ ${ }_{trend}^{2}$=428.513,P<0.001).Annual average incidences by prefecture ranged from 2.99 to 19.17 per 100 000.The incidence of mumps was seasonal,with peaks in late spring,early summer,and early autumn.The annual incidence in male (11.57/100 000) was higher than that in female (7.7/100 000) (χ²=134.92,P<0.001),and most of patients were people aged 5-14 years.The cases were mainly in 0-15 years old group (89.33%).The top three incidence groups were students,nursery and kindergarten children,and scattered children (92.39%).The ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,0,0)₁₂ model predicted that the number of reported cases from July to December in 2024 was 172, which was 18.62% higher than that in the same period in 2023 (145 cases). Conclusion Students and kindergarten children are key groups for mumps prevention,and efforts to control mumps in schools and kindergartens should be consistently reinforced.