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安徽省2014—2023年托幼机构儿童传染病流行特征及趋势分析
李笑颜, 邓舒, 赵玉秋, 丁中兴, 田杨杨, 闫雨露, 滕雪娇, 吴家兵
安徽预防医学杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3) : 182-186.
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安徽省2014—2023年托幼机构儿童传染病流行特征及趋势分析
Epidemic characteristics and trend of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2023
目的 了解安徽省托幼机构儿童传染病的流行特征和发病趋势,为制定托幼机构儿童传染病的防控策略提供参考。方法 采用描述性流行病学方法对安徽省2014—2023年托幼机构儿童传染病监测数据进行分析,应用Joinpoint回归模型对不同年份发病率进行趋势分析。结果 2014—2023年安徽省累积报告托幼机构儿童传染病32种372 745例次,年平均发病率为1 876.60/10万,趋势变化较平稳(AAPC=12.79%,P=0.064)。发病例数居前5位的病种依次为手足口病(占48.49%)、流行性感冒(占27.74%)、水痘(占9.78%)、其他感染性腹泻病(占7.32%)及流行性腮腺炎(占4.58%)。其中,手足口病报告发病率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-4.04%,P=0.308),流行性腮腺炎虽呈上升趋势(AAPC=1.67%,P=0.793),但趋势检验差异均无统计学意义;流行性感冒(AAPC=66.54%,P<0.001)及其他感染性腹泻病(AAPC=15.43%,P<0.001)报告发病率呈上升趋势;水痘报告发病率呈先升后降趋势,2014—2019年呈上升趋势(APC=32.11%,P<0.001),2019—2023年呈下降趋势(APC=-12.89%,P=0.008)。托幼机构儿童传染病发病呈双峰分布,每年4—6月、10月至次年1月为发病高峰。男童及3岁以下儿童肠道传染病占发病总数的比例较高,分别占58.46%和82.91%。结论 安徽省托幼机构儿童传染病总体发病水平较高,发病趋势平稳,以肠道和呼吸道传染病为主,季节特征明显,需根据流行特征,结合实际情况采取针对性的防控措施,有效预防传染病的发生和流行。
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trend of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Anhui Province,and to provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for infectious diseases in children. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2023.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of incidence rate in different years. Results A total of 372 745 cases of 32 infectious diseases were reported in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2023 among children in childcare institutions,with an average annual incidence rate of 1 876.60/100 000,showed a stable trend (AAPC=12.79%,P=0.064).The top five cumulative reported cases were hand-foot-mouth disease (48.49%),influenza (27.74%),chicken pox (9.78%),other infectious diarrheal diseases (7.32%),and mumps (4.58%).The reported incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease decreased slowly (AAPC=-4.04%,P=0.308),mumps showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.67%,P=0.793),but had no statistically significant difference.The reported incidence rate of influenza (AAPC=66.54%,P<0.001) and other infectious diarrheal diseases (AAPC=15.43%,P<0.001) showed an upward trend.The reported incidence rate of chickenpox showed a rising-falling trend,with an upward trend from 2014 to 2019 (APC=32.11%,P<0.001),and a decreasing trend from 2019 to 2023 (APC=-12.89%,P=0.008).The incidence of infectious diseases in kindergarten children showed a bimodal type,the peak incidence of infectious diseases was from April to June and from October to January of the following year.The proportion of intestinal infectious diseases was high in boys (58.46%) and children under 3 years old (82.91%). Conclusion The incidence of infectious diseases among kindergarten children in Anhui Province is relatively high,and the incidence trend is stable.Intestinal and respiratory infectious diseases account for the main part,and the seasonal characteristics are obvious,so it is necessary to take targeted prevention and control measures according to the epidemic characteristics and the actual situation,thus to effectively control the occurrence and epidemics of common infectious diseases in nursery children.
传染病 / 儿童 / 发病率 / Joinpoint回归模型
Infectious diseases / Children / Incidence rate / Joinpoint regression model
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