目的 分析2010—2024年六盘水市手足口病（hand, foot and mouth disease, HFMD）流行特征，为HFMD防控提供依据。方法 归纳整理2010—2024年六盘水市HFMD监测数据，运用描述流行病学方法分析其流行特征，并建立SARIMA模型进行预测。结果 2010—2024年六盘水市共报告HFMD病例47 884例，年均报告发病率为108.74/10万；重症病例847例，重症率为1.77%；死亡27例。HFMD持续流行且呈隔年高发趋势，发病高峰多为4—7月。发病数最多的为钟山区（17 625例，占36.81%），发病数最少的为六枝特区（3 620例，占7.56%）。高发人群主要为散居儿童（37 941例，占79.24%），其次是幼托儿童（8 103例，占16.92%）和学生（1 730例，占3.61%）；发病年龄中位数为2（1，3）岁，尤以0~5岁年龄组高发（45 209例，占94.41%）；男女性别比为1.54∶1。六盘水市2010—2014年HFMD优势毒株交替流行，2015年以后其他肠道病毒成为主要优势毒株。SARIMA（1，0，1）（0，1，1）₁₂模型为适用模型，预测2025年HFMD发病率为86.53/10万。结论 六盘水市手足口病5岁及以下儿童是防控重点，SARIMA（1，0，1） （0，1，1）₁₂模型可提供预测参考，持续优化可提升其预警效能。建议强化重点人群健康教育，推进EV-A71疫苗接种，并完善病原学监测网络，以实现精准防控。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Liupanshui from 2010 to 2024, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The surveillance data of HFMD in Liupanshui from 2010 to 2024 were collected and analyzed. The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics, and the SARIMA model was established for prediction. Results From 2010 to 2024, a total of 47 884 HFMD cases were reported in Liupanshui, with an average annual incidence rate of 108.74/100 000. There were 847 severe cases, with a severe case rate of 1.77%. There were 27 deaths. HFMD remained prevalent and showed a high incidence trend every other year, with the peak incidence mostly from April to July. The district with the highest number of cases was Zhongshan District (17 625 cases, 36.81%), and the district with the lowest number of cases was Liuzhi Special District (3 620 cases, 7.56%). The high-risk groups were mainly scattered children (37 941 cases, 79.24%), followed by children in kindergartens and nurseries (8 103 cases, 16.92%) and students (1 730 cases, 3.61%). The median age of onset was 2 (1, 3) years, especially with a high incidence in the 0-5 years age group (45 209 cases, 94.41%). The male-to-female ratio was 1.54∶1. From 2010 to 2014, the dominant strains of HFMD in Liupanshui were alternately prevalent. After 2015, other enteroviruses became the main dominant strains. The SARIMA (1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂ model was an applicable model, and it is predicted that the incidence rate of HFMD will be 86.53 per 100 000 in 2025. Conclusions Children aged 5 years and under are the key target for the prevention and control of HFMD in Liupanshui. The SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model can effectively predict the incidence trend, and its predictive performance can be enhanced through continuous optimization. It is recommended to strengthen health education for key populations, promote EV-A71 vaccination, and improve the etiological surveillance network to achieve precise prevention and control.