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基于集中度和圆形分布法的淮安市淮阴区手足口病季节性流行特征分析
Seasonal epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Huaiyin District, Huai’an based on concentration degree and circular distribution method
目的 分析2014—2023年江苏省淮安市淮阴区手足口病的季节性流行特征,为防控策略的制定提供科学依据。方法 采用集中度与圆形分布法,分析2014—2023年手足口病月发病数据的季节性分布特征,并对逐年流行规律进行探讨。结果 2014—2023年淮阴区共报告手足口病7 940例,年均发病率为102.31/10万,总体发病呈下降趋势(AAPC=-10.164%,P<0.001)。发病人群以5岁及以下儿童为主(96.12%),男性发病率高于女性。集中度分析显示合计M值为0.359,提示存在一定的季节性;圆形分布法显示流行高峰期为3月14日至8月28日,平均高峰日为6月6日,部分年份呈双峰流行特征。结论 淮阴区手足口病发病具有明显的季节性,流行高峰主要为春夏季,建议在流行期前加强对重点场所的监测和对重点人群的健康教育。
Objective To analyze the seasonal epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Huaiyin District of Huai’an, Jiangsu Province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating HFMD prevention and control strategies. Methods The concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the seasonal distribution characteristics of monthly incidence data of HFMD from 2014 to 2023, and the epidemic patterns were explored year by year. Results A total of 7 940 HFMD cases were reported in Huaiyin District from 2014 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 102.31/100 000. The overall incidence showed a significant decreasing trend (AAPC=-10.164%, P<0.001). Most cases were children aged 5 years and below (96.12%), and the incidence rate was higher in males than that in females. Concentration degree analysis showed that the combined M-value was 0.359, indicating a certain degree of seasonality. The circular distribution analysis revealed that the epidemic peak period was from March 14 to August 28, with the average peak day occurred on June 6. Bimodal epidemic patterns were observed in some years. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Huaiyin District exhibits clear seasonality, predominantly peaking in spring and summer. It is recommended to strengthen surveillance in key settings and health education for key populations prior to the epidemic season.
Hand, foot and mouth disease / Concentration degree / Circular distribution / Seasonal characteristics
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