目的 评价全省死因监测数据代表性,测算不同地区四大类慢性病早死概率。方法 在对死因数据评价基础上,分析全省各市恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心血管疾病和主要呼吸系统疾病早死概率。结果 2017年安徽省16个市中8个市死因监测数据代表性较好,有1个市数据无市级代表性,其余7个市数据代表性有待商榷。2017年安徽省四大类慢性病死亡率为275.76/10万,标化率为136.68/10万,早死概率为13.76%。各市四大类慢性病死亡水平及早死概率均呈现北方高于南方,且均表现为恶性肿瘤和心血管疾病相对较高。结论 安徽省四大类慢性病早死概率处于一个相对较高的水平。加强恶性肿瘤和心血管疾病防控工作,全面推进居民健康生活方式行动尤其是对北方地区,将有助于降低四大类慢性病早死概率。

Objective To evaluate the representativeness of death monitoring data and calculate the probability of premature death of four kinds of chronic diseases at municipal level. Methods Based on the evaluation of death-causes data, the probability of premature death of chronic diseases was analyzed. Results In 2017, 8 of 16 cities in Anhui province had better representativeness of death cause monitoring data, one city had no representativeness at the municipal level, and the other seven cities remain to be discussed.In 2017, the mortality rate of four major chronic diseases in Anhui province was 275.76 / 10⁵, the standardized rate was 136.68 / 10⁵,and the probability of premature death was 13.76%.The premature death probability of the four major chronic diseases in each city was higher in the north areas than that in the south areas,and the rate of malignant tumor and cardiovascular disease was relatively high among four major chronic diseases. Conclusion The premature death probability of four kinds of chronic diseases in Anhui is at a relatively high level.Strengthening the prevention and control of malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases and promoting residents' healthy lifestyle actions in an all-round way, especially in northern areas, will help to reduce the probability of premature death of four kinds of chronic diseases.