目的 评估安徽省近期发生诺如病毒感染暴发疫情的风险,提出针对性的风险管理建议。方法 在查阅文献和分析数据的基础上,采用专家会商法对疫情发生的可能性和后果严重性进行评估,使用风险矩阵法量化风险,得出风险等级。结果 安徽省诺如病毒感染暴发疫情呈逐年上升趋势,流行高峰期为11月~次年4月,发生于托幼机构和学校的疫情占总数的94.4%,传播途径主要为人传人。结论 安徽省近期发生诺如病毒感染暴发疫情的可能性等级为“很可能”,后果严重性等级为“较高”,风险等级为“高风险”,相关部门需根据风险管理建议采取针对性地防控措施。
Abstract
Objective To assess the risk of norovirus infection outbreak in Anhui province recently, and to put forward targeted risk management recommendations. Methods Based on literature review and data analysis, expert consultation method was used to evaluate the possibility and seriousness of the outbreak, and risk matrix method was used to quantify the risk, and the risk grade was obtained. Results The outbreak of norovirus infection in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend year by year. The peak of the epidemic was from November to April of the next year, 94.4% of the outbreak occurred in nurseries and schools, and the transmission route of outbreak was mainly human-to-human. Conclusion The possibility of a recent outbreak of norovirus infection in Anhui province was rated as "very likely" and the severity of the consequences was rated as "relatively high".The risk level on outbreak of norovirus in Anhui province was high. The relevant departments should adopt targeted prevention and control measures according to risk management recommendations.
关键词
诺如病毒 /
风险评估 /
暴发疫情 /
卫生应急 /
托幼机构 /
学校
Key words
Norovirus /
Risk assessment /
Outbreak /
Health emergency /
Childcare facilities /
School
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