目的 分析安徽省2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎(以下简称“新冠肺炎”)传播动力学特征,评价疫情期间采取措施的效果,为疫情防控提供科学依据。方法 根据2020年1月22日至2月27日安徽省新冠肺炎疫情数据,构建带有潜伏期和无症状感染者的新冠肺炎易感者-潜伏者-传染者-无症状感染者-移出者(susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed,SEIAR)传播动力学模型,分析传播动力学特征、评估防控措施效果。结果 安徽省新冠肺炎疫情流行可分为三段: 1月22日-27日(快速上升期)、1月28日-2月7日(平稳期)、2月8日-27日(快速下降期)。传播动力学模型拟合结果显示安徽省新冠肺炎传播有效再生指数快速上升期为1.56,平稳期为0.53,快速下降期为0.03,平稳期和快速下降期新冠肺炎的传播能力分别降低65.9%和98.2%。措施效果评估结果显示,安徽省若未采取任何防控措施,疫情将持续至2021年5月13日,累计病例数将为34 245 802例,全省罹患率高达54.16%。结论 2020年安徽省新冠肺炎疫情经历3个发展阶段,不同发展阶段的传播指数明显不同,采取的综合防控措施成效显著,有效地控制了疫情。
Abstract
Objective To analyze the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui province in 2020,and evaluate the effect of measures taken during the epidemic period,so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods Based on the COVID-19 data in Anhui from January 22,2020 to February 27th,a transmission kinetics model (susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed,SEIAR)with latent and asymptomatic infections was constructed,and the dynamic characteristics of transmission and evaluation of control measures were analyzed. Results The epidemic curve of covid-19 in Anhui province was roughly divided into three sections: before January 28,solstice on January 28 and after February 7.Dynamic model fitting results showed that the effective number of regeneration of COVID-19 in Anhui in the first stage was 1.56,that is,one COVID-19 case was able to transmit 1.56 new cases effectively in Anhui,while the transmission capacity of COVID-19 in Anhui was reduced by 65.9% and 98.2% in the second and third stages,respectively.If no prevention and control measures were taken after January 28,the epidemic will continue to spread until May 13,2021,and the cumulative number of cases will reach 34245802,with a cumulative incidence rate of 54.16%. Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemic in Anhui province has gone through three stages.The transmission index of different development stages was significantly different,and the comprehensive prevention and control measures had achieved remarkable results,effectively controlling the epidemic situation.
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
再生指数 /
传播动力学 /
SEIAR /
新发传染病 /
防控措施
Key words
COVID-19 /
Regeneration index /
Transmission dynamics /
SEIAR /
Emerging infectious diseases /
Prevention and control measures
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基金
比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会:COVID-19 Emergency and Pandemic Response Program (新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应项目)(项目编号:INV-005832);安徽省科技厅、安徽省卫健委应急科研攻关项目“新冠病毒肺炎流行病学及临床特征研究”(项目编号:202004a07020002)
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