目的 探讨影响新型冠状病毒肺炎重症/危重症病例发生的危险因素,为安徽省疫情的防控和医疗救治提供理论依据。方法 根据“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中2020年安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎监测数据和个案调查数据,将新型冠状病毒肺炎病例分为重症/危重症和轻症/普通两组,采用logistic回归分析重症/危重症病例的危险因素。结果 2020年安徽省共报告新型冠状病毒肺炎重症/危重症病例140例,重症/危重症发生率为14.1%;其中男性87例,女性53例,男女性别比为1.6∶1。Logistic回归分析结果显示:年龄(OR=1.784,95%CI :1.556,2.045)、男性(OR=1.606,95%CI:1.086,2.375)、首发症状有发热(OR=1.858,95%CI:1.202,2.873)、畏寒(OR=1.813,95%CI:1.018,3.229)、首诊医疗机构为乡镇及以下级别(OR=2.052,95%CI:1.364,3.088)为重症/危重症病例发生的危险因素。结论 年龄大、男性、首发症状有发热、首发症状有畏寒、首诊在乡镇及以下级别医疗机构,为重症/危重症病例的显著独立危险因素。应针对危险因素采取及时有效的防控措施,降低重症率。
Abstract
Objective To provide the basis for prevention and control of epidemic situation in Anhui Province through the risk factor analysis of severe/critical cases of new coronavirus pneumonia. Methods According to the information system of Chinese disease prevention and control and the data of case investigation,the cases were divided into two groups:severe / critical and mild / common.The risk factors of severe / critical cases were calculated by logistic regression analysis. Results The incidence of severe/critical cases of COVID-19 in Anhui Province was 14.1%.Of 140 severe/critical cases,87 were male and 53 were female,with a sex ratio of 1.6:1.Logistic regression analysis showed that: the aged(OR=1.784,95% CI:1.556,2.045),males(OR=1.606,95% CI:1.086,2.375),first-episode fever(OR=1.858,95% CI:1.202,2.873),first-episode chills(OR=1.813,95% CI:1.018,3.229),county-level treatment (OR=2.052,95%CI:1.364,3.088) are risk factors for severe/critical cases. Conclusion The aged,males,fever,high fever,chills,first visit in township and below level medical institutions are significant independent risk factors for severe/critical cases.We should take timely and effective prevention and control measures to reduce the severe rate and accelerate the eradication of the epidemic situation.
关键词
新型冠状病毒 /
COVID-19 /
重症 /
危险因素
Key words
SARS-CoV-2 /
COVID-19 /
severe cases /
risk factors
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基金
安徽省科技厅、安徽省卫健委应急科研攻关项目“新冠病毒肺炎流行病学及临床特征研究”(202004a0720002)
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