PDF(5688 KB)
PDF(5688 KB)
PDF(5688 KB)
2020—2024年杭州市富阳区流感流行特征和时空聚集性分析
The epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of influenza in Fuyang District of Hangzhou from 2020 to 2024
目的 分析2020—2024年杭州市富阳区流行性感冒(简称流感)流行特征及时空聚集性,为流感疫情风险评估、早期预警和精准防控提供依据。方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2020—2024年杭州市富阳区流感病例数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析其三间分布特征;使用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析,使用SaTScan 10.2软件进行时空扫描统计分析。结果 2020—2024年杭州市富阳区累计报告流感病例59 222例,无重症及死亡病例,年均发病率142.36/万。病例以学生和幼托儿童为主,占58.18%。流行高峰主要为每年11月至次年3月,2022年出现夏季高峰。2020、2022和2023年富阳区流感发病率呈空间正相关(Moran’s I均>0,P均<0.05),高-高聚集区主要位于中西部地区。时空扫描分析显示,每年均存在时空聚集区,一类聚集区主要分布在北部和西南部。结论 2020—2024年杭州市富阳区流感发病呈现明显的时空聚集性。建议在流感流行季前,针对高发乡镇(街道)实施精准防控,提升疫情防控效果。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of influenza in Fuyang District of Hangzhou from 2020 to 2024, and to provide a basis for risk assessment, early warning and targeted prevention and control of influenza outbreaks. Methods Influenza case data in Fuyang District of Hangzhou from 2020 to 2024 were obtained from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics in terms of person, place, and time. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed with ArcGIS 10.8, and spatiotemporal scan statistical analysis was conducted using SaTScan 10.2. Results From 2020 to 2024, a total of 59 222 influenza cases were reported in Fuyang District of Hangzhou, with no severe or fatal cases. The average annual incidence rate was 142.36/10 000. Students and kindergarten children accounted for 58.18% of cases. The epidemic peak mainly occurred from November to March of the following year, with an additional peak in the summer of 2022. The incidence rates of influenza in Fuyang District in 2020, 2022 and 2023 were spatially positively correlated (all Moran’s I>0, all P<0.05), and the high-high aggregation areas were mainly located in the central and western regions. Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified significant spatiotemporal clusters each year, with the primary clusters predominantly distributed in the northern and southwestern areas. Conclusion Influenza incidence in Fuyang District of Hangzhou from 2020 to 2024 showed significant spatiotemporal clustering. It is recommended to implement precise prevention and control strategies in high-incidence towns (streets) before the influenza epidemic season to improve the effectiveness of epidemic control.
Influenza / Epidemiological characteristics / Spatial autocorrelation / Spatiotemporal scan
| [1] |
|
| [2] |
World Health Organization. Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030 [EB/OL].(2019-03-15)[2025-06-30]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241515320.
|
| [3] |
Influenza infection causes a huge burden every year, affecting approximately 8% of adults and approximately 25% of children and resulting in approximately 400,000 respiratory deaths worldwide. However, based on the number of reported influenza cases, the actual prevalence of influenza may be greatly underestimated. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence rate of influenza and determine the true epidemiological characteristics of this virus.
|
| [4] |
马珊珊, 赵棋锋, 马岩, 等. 2015—2024年绍兴市流行性感冒时空聚集性分析[J]. 预防医学, 2025, 37(9):945-949.
|
| [5] |
王璇, 刘社兰, 曹艳丽, 等. 2013—2022年浙江省流行性感冒暴发疫情流行特征[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(8):645-648.
|
| [6] |
王远航, 富小飞, 亓云鹏, 等. 嘉兴市流行性感冒时空聚集性分析[J]. 预防医学, 2025, 37(1):55-58.
|
| [7] |
During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, seasonal influenza activity declined globally and remained below previous seasonal levels, but intensified in China since 2021. Preventive measures to COVID-19 accompanied by different epidemic characteristics of influenza in different regions of the world. To better respond to influenza outbreaks under the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed the epidemiology, antigenic and genetic characteristics, and antiviral susceptibility of influenza viruses in the mainland of China during 2020–2021.
|
| [8] |
陈彭, 赵科伕, 徐义花, 等. 合肥市瑶海区2018—2022年流感样病例及病原学监测结果分析[J]. 安徽预防医学杂志, 2024, 30(5):388-391,400.
|
| [9] |
王铭韩, 胡泽鑫, 冯录召, 等. 新型冠状病毒感染疫情后我国季节性流感的流行趋势与防控建议[J]. 中华医学杂志, 2024, 104(8):559-565.
|
| [10] |
王哲, 王乙, 陶明勇, 等. 2014—2023年度浙江省杭州市流感样病例流行特征及趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2025, 40(2):176-183.
|
| [11] |
|
| [12] |
劳旭影, 陈奕, 龚逸颖, 等. 宁波市2005—2020年流行性感冒流行病学特征分析[J]. 现代实用医学, 2023, 35(8):1039-1042.
|
| [13] |
高桂玲, 薛青, 王超, 等. 2018—2022年上海市松江区中小学生传染病流行特征[J]. 上海预防医学, 2024, 36(10):958-962.
|
| [14] |
陈宇, 陈琦, 吴杨, 等. 2014—2023年黄冈市流行性感冒流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(20):3664-3671.
|
| [15] |
雷霄, 刘川, 张文华, 等. 2017—2022年乐山市流感流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 预防医学情报杂志, 2023, 39(11):1291-1298,1305.
|
| [16] |
刘牧文, 杨旭辉, 王婧, 等. 2019—2020年浙江省杭州市流感病例时空聚集性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(4):376-380.
|
| [17] |
This study used (Geographic Information System) GIS technology to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza incidence in Qinghai from 2009 to 2023, based on influenza surveillance data.
|
| [18] |
叶家萍, 周雯, 罗思璐, 等. 2014—2023年广西北海市流行性感冒流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 上海预防医学, 2025, 37(4):306-312,318.
|
利益冲突声明 全部作者声明无利益冲突
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |