目的 分析蚌埠市2009~2018年手足口病的流行变化趋势,探讨气象因素对手足口发病的影响。方法 采用描述流行病学方法对“传染病报告信息管理系统”中现住址为蚌埠市的手足口病和病原学监测结果进行分析,采用Spearson相关系数描述手足口病月发病数与月平均降雨量、月平均日照小时数、月平均风速、月平均气温关系。结果 蚌埠市2009~2018 年手足口病累计报告 77 148 例,平均年报告发病率为231.91/10万。2009~2012 年报告病例数呈逐年上升趋势,2013 年以后出现隔年高发现象,偶数年发病率较高。发病高峰在 4~6 月份,5月发病率(43.40/10万)最高,1月发病率(7.58/10万)最低。5 岁以下、散居儿童是高发人群,男女性别比为1.63∶1。病原学监测采样4 293 例,阳性2 120例,其中 EV71 型 901例,Cox-A16 500例,其他肠道病毒719例。当气温为16~25 ℃ 时,手足口病发病数趋于发病高峰,气温高于26 ℃时,发病率下降;风速与发病率呈正相关。线性回归方程为手足口病月发病率 = -11.244 + 0.704×月平均气温+8.184×月平均风速。结论 蚌埠市为手足口病高发地区,呈周期性流行,季节性和人群分布特征明显,与气温和风速关系紧密。
Abstract
Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Bengbu City from 2009 to 2018,and to explore the influence of meteorological factors on HFMD. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance results of HFMD and etiology in "Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System" in Bengbu City.Spearson correlation coefficient was used to describe the relationships between monthly incidence of HFMD and monthly mean rainfall,monthly mean sunshine hours,monthly mean wind speed and monthly mean temperature. Results A total of 77 148 cases of HFMD were reported in Bengbu from 2009 to 2018,with an average annual reported incidence of 231.91/100,000.From 2009 to 2012,the number of reported cases increased year by year.After 2013,there was a high incidence every other year.The incidence rate was higher in even years.The peak incidence was in April-June,the highest was in May (43.40/100,000) and the lowest was in January (7.58/100,000).Children under 5 years old and scattered children were at high risk with a male-female ratio of 1.63:1.Pathogenic surveillance samples were collected from 4293 cases and 2120 cases were positive,including 901 cases of EV71,500 cases of Cox-A16 and 719 Cases of other enteroviruses.The incidence of HFMD tended to peak when the temperature was 16-25℃.When the temperature was higher than 26℃,the incidence decreased,and the wind speed was positively correlated with the incidence.The linear regression equation was the monthly incidence of HFMD=-11.244+0.704* monthly mean temperature+8.184* monthly mean wind speed. Conclusion Bengbu City is a high incidence area of HFMD,which is periodically prevalent.Its seasonal and population distribution characteristics are obvious,and it is closely related to temperature and wind speed.
关键词
手足口病 /
流行趋势 /
肠道病毒 /
气象
Key words
Hand,foot and mouth disease /
Epidemiological trend /
Enterovirus /
Meteorology
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参考文献
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基金
安徽省青年科学基金项目,项目编号为1708085QH186
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