Objective To analyze the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui province in 2020,and evaluate the effect of measures taken during the epidemic period,so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods Based on the COVID-19 data in Anhui from January 22,2020 to February 27th,a transmission kinetics model (susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed,SEIAR)with latent and asymptomatic infections was constructed,and the dynamic characteristics of transmission and evaluation of control measures were analyzed. Results The epidemic curve of covid-19 in Anhui province was roughly divided into three sections: before January 28,solstice on January 28 and after February 7.Dynamic model fitting results showed that the effective number of regeneration of COVID-19 in Anhui in the first stage was 1.56,that is,one COVID-19 case was able to transmit 1.56 new cases effectively in Anhui,while the transmission capacity of COVID-19 in Anhui was reduced by 65.9% and 98.2% in the second and third stages,respectively.If no prevention and control measures were taken after January 28,the epidemic will continue to spread until May 13,2021,and the cumulative number of cases will reach 34245802,with a cumulative incidence rate of 54.16%. Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemic in Anhui province has gone through three stages.The transmission index of different development stages was significantly different,and the comprehensive prevention and control measures had achieved remarkable results,effectively controlling the epidemic situation.
Key words
COVID-19 /
Regeneration index /
Transmission dynamics /
SEIAR /
Emerging infectious diseases /
Prevention and control measures
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