Risk Assessment
CHANG Jingru, MA Wanwan, HOU Sai, GONG Lei, DENG Shu, ZHANG Lesheng, ZHANG Genyou, ZHANG Ning, WANG Min, MENG Can, ZHENG Li, LYU Xiaofeng, ZHU Meng, SUN Yuanfang, FENG Yujie, ZHU Qian, LI Ming, NIE Shuang, LI Rui, CHEN Xiuzhi, CHU Na, BI Niannian, LI Shuwen, CHU Xiujie, GUO Siyu, YANG Jicui, WANG Guanqun, WU Jiabing
Objective To assess the risk of various public health emergencies in Anhui Province in 2026, and propose risk management recommendations. Methods The Delphi method was used to identify risk assessment topics. Based on data of public health emergencies and infectious disease surveillance in Anhui Province from 2021 to 2025, expert consultation method was employed to evaluate risks, and identified priority levels, key focus regions and venues of each topic across different months. Results A total of 23 risk topics are required attention in Anhui Province in 2026, including 19 infectious diseases topics (82.61%) and 4 other topics (17.39%). In the first quarter of 2026, the key focuses should be on influenza, pertussis, norovirus gastroenteritis, and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. In the second quarter, key focuses are coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), tuberculosis, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS). In the third quarter, key focuses are COVID-19, cholera, chikungunya fever, dengue fever, acute schistosomiasis infection, foodborne disease outbreaks, and heatstroke. In the fourth quarter, key focuses are influenza, varicella (chickenpox), and human infection with novel influenza subtype. Cholera, SFTS, brucellosis, epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF), imported malaria, and acute schistosomiasis show obvious regional characteristics in terms of priority areas. Kindergartens and schools are the priority settings with the highest number of associated risk topics (10 topics), followed by households (8 topics). Risk management recommendations mainly include six aspects: deepening inter-departmental collaboration, strengthening surveillance and early warning, conducting standardized epidemic response, enhancing medical treatment and case management, promoting vaccination programs, and sustaining health education. Conclusions In 2026, the public health risks of emergencies requiring attention in Anhui Province are predominantly infectious diseases, with differences in key months, regions, and venues for various risk topics. Health emergency preparedness measures should be implemented before the peak epidemic periods. Efforts should be made to explore and establish a multi-disease prevention mechanism to ensure the effective implementation of all prevention and control measures.