Objective The exponential smoothing method was used to predict the trend of newly reported AIDS cases,and to provide the basis for the formulation of AIDS prevention and control strategies in Luzhou City. Methods According to the monthly new reported cases of AIDS in Luzhou City from 2018 to 2019,the exponential smoothing method was used to build a prediction model to predict the monthly new reported cases in the first half of 2020,and the prediction results were evaluated. Results By comprehensively comparing the judgment indicators of the four models of exponential smoothing,the Holt linear trend model was determined to be the optimal prediction model for this study.The model had a high degree of fit,and the actual value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value.The average relative error between the number of newly reported cases of AIDS from January to June 2020 and the predicted value of the model was 33.19%. Conclusion The Holt linear trend model can well fit the situation of newly reported AIDS cases in Luzhou City.
Key words
Exponential smoothing method /
AIDS /
Newly reported cases /
Predictive analysis
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