Study on the epidemic trend of mumps in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024 based on joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model

MA Bingxin, WANG Yao, PAN Fan, ZHANG Huan, CHEN Yafei, QIN Wei

Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine ›› 2026, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3) : 201-207.

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Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine ›› 2026, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3) : 201-207. DOI: 10.19837/j.cnki.ahyf.2026.03.006
Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control

Study on the epidemic trend of mumps in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024 based on joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control measures and immunization strategies. Methods Mumps case data in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024 were collected. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend of mumps, while an age-period-cohort model was applied to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results From 2005 to 2024, a total of 22 868 cases of mumps were reported in Lu'an City, corresponding to an average annual incidence rate of 24.16/100 000. Cases were mainly concentrated in the age group of 0-19 years old, and the reported incidence rate in males was higher than that in females. The reported incidence rate of mumps in the general population showed an initial upward trend followed by a decline from 2005 to 2024, with 2011 identified as the turning point (2005-2011: APC=39.92%, 95%CI: 15.75% to 69.14%, t=3.780, P=0.002; 2011-2024: APC=-14.20%, 95%CI: -19.50% to -8.54%, t=-5.110, P<0.001). There was no statistically significant trend in reported incidence among 0-19 years old (AAPC=-0.62%, 95%CI: -7.21% to 6.43%, t=-0.180, P=0.859), while the incidence rate in individuals aged 20 years and older showed an overall upward trend (AAPC=6.88%, 95%CI: 1.16% to 12.93%, t=2.370, P=0.018). Analysis using the age-period-cohort model showed that the reported incidence rate increased from 5.73/100 000 at age 0 to 135.84/100 000 at age 10, and then decreased to 7.25/100 000 at age 19. The 5-11-year age group exhibited the highest reported incidence rate. In 2011, 2012, and 2015 did the risk of mumps infection exceed that of the reference period (2014), while in all other years it remained lower. Moreover, after 2020, the relative risk (RR) showed a consistent year-on-year declining trend. The RR of the 1995 birth cohort was the highest (RR=2.181, 95%CI: 1.740-2.734). Conclusion The reported incidence rate of mumps in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024 showed a trend of first rising and then declining. After the inclusion of the measles, mumps and rubella combined attenuated live vaccine (MMR) vaccine in the immunization program in 2008, the reported incidence rate decreased. It is essential to maintain high coverage of the two-dose MMR vaccine and enhance surveillance among individuals aged 20 years and older to further control mumps transmission.

Key words

Mumps / Incidence / Epidemic trend / Joinpoint regression model / Age-period-cohort model

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MA Bingxin , WANG Yao , PAN Fan , et al . Study on the epidemic trend of mumps in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2024 based on joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model[J]. Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2026, 32(3): 201-207 https://doi.org/10.19837/j.cnki.ahyf.2026.03.006

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Both sex (i.e., biological differences) and gender (i.e., social or cultural influences) impact vaccine acceptance, responses, and outcomes. Clinical data illustrate that among children, young adults, and aged individuals, males and females differ in vaccine-induced immune responses, adverse events, and protection. Although males are more likely to receive vaccines, following vaccination, females typically develop higher antibody responses and report more adverse effects of vaccination than do males. Human, nonhuman animal, and in vitro studies reveal numerous immunological, genetic, hormonal, and environmental factors that differ between males and females and contribute to sex- and gender-specific vaccine responses and outcomes. Herein, we address the impact of sex and gender variables that should be considered in preclinical and clinical studies of vaccines.
[53]
Ovsyannikova IG, Jacobson RM, Dhiman N, et al. Human leukocyte antigen and cytokine receptor gene polymorphisms associated with heterogeneous immune responses to mumps viral vaccine[J]. Pediatrics, 2008, 121(5):e1091-e1099.
OBJECTIVES. Mumps outbreaks continue to occur throughout the world, including in highly vaccinated populations. Vaccination against mumps has been successful; however, humoral and cellular immune responses to mumps vaccines vary significantly from person to person. We set out to assess whether HLA and cytokine gene polymorphisms are associated with variations in the immune response to mumps viral vaccine.

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