The spatial and temporal characteristics of infectious diseases and ARIMA model prediction

SHONG Cun-yan, SHONG Xiao-li

Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine ›› 2016, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2) : 83-86.

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PDF(1129 KB)
Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine ›› 2016, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2) : 83-86.

The spatial and temporal characteristics of infectious diseases and ARIMA model prediction

  • SHONG Cun-yan1, SHONG Xiao-li2
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Abstract

Objective To improve the ability of disease surveillance, we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of infectious diseases, and predict infectious hepatitis B and C incidence in Shandong province. Methods Collecting data from direct network reporting system of Shandong and using EViews6.0, the ARIMA model was constructed based on the time series between January 2011 to December 2014. The incidence number from January to June in 2015 was also predicted. Results Two types of infectious diseases showed a certain period fluctuation. Every year, summer was the high incidence period of infectious diseases, and there will be a slight rebound in alternating periods of autumn and winter. There were some differences in 17 cities in Shandong. ARIMA model prediction and the actual change trends coincide. Conclusion The forecasting effects for hepatitis B infectious diseases was better than hepatitis C, as the minimum relative error was only 1.15%,that the model could provide theoretical support for alarm of infectious diseases.

Key words

ARIMA model / Infectious diseases / Prediction / Spatial and temporal characteristics

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SHONG Cun-yan, SHONG Xiao-li. The spatial and temporal characteristics of infectious diseases and ARIMA model prediction[J]. Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2016, 22(2): 83-86

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